I have a confession: I really, really like gambling.
Not the type of gambling where the house inevitably wins over the long term. That act holds no thrill for me. It’s like watching a film that has a few thrills along the way that you know with certainty ends badly for everyone. You won’t see me playing slots or most table games.
But games where you can play against others, where the outcome is uncertain and hence more interesting, and you have a mathematical chance to make money along the way? Sign me up.
That’s one reason I’m glad more sports books are offering grappling bets. Because I can play games I like while watching the matches I want to see — and pass along my thoughts on where the smart money is. Plus, we can have another blog and podcast contest. Everybody wins!
ADCC is coming right up in Finland, and if you’re reading this blog, chances are you’ll be watching. Why not play along at home? Here are the odds offered at a particular online betting spot, where I’ll be placing my (imaginary, just for fun) wagers. Let’s talk about the current odds at BetDSI.eu (with the proviso that there are always drops due to injury and late replacements very close to the event). Come back tomorrow and we’ll get to the free contest, where you can play along without the taste of online degeneracy.
BREAKING DOWN THE DIVISIONS
My thoughts on each division, with the respective odds:
MEN: 66KG DIVISION
Of all the divisions, Rubens “Cobrinha” Charles rates as the biggest favorite of all. This is warranted, giving his considerable achievements and success at ADCC. Unfortunately, that makes the odds super-unfavorable. I’m rooting for Cobrinha and think he’s the clear favorite. Instead of dropping a bet on him, why not seek value elsewhere with small bets on Bruno Frazatto or Augusto “Tanquinho” Mendes at +700? $100 on Cobrinha nets you a profit of just over $50, but $45 each on Frazatto, Tanquinho and a $10 flyer on Ethan Crelinsten (I would say Eddie Cummings, but he’s out with a knee injury) spreads your risk for a greater potential payout of $230-300.
WOMEN: 60KG DIVISION
This is one of those spots where the matches promise to be great, but the odds don’t offer much in terms of value. Mackenzie Dern is the deserving favorite, but she’s also lost recently to Beatriz Mesquita — albeit in a gi match. And Dern has had the edge on the legendary Michelle Nicolini during their recent matches, but Nicolini’s experience and record at ADCC can’t be discounted. The only athlete whose odds offer real value is Tammi Musumeci at +700, and the competition in this division is so fierce, every match deserves a watch, but I don’t think any of these odds merit a play.
MEN: 77KG DIVISION
This is one of those spots where I’d be very surprised if one of the three favorites doesn’t win. Lucas Lepri is perhaps the most well-rounded jiujitsu athlete currently competing, and he’s good in every ruleset. Gilbert “Durinho” Burns has a great history at events like this, and is inexplicably overlooked in conversations about the top guys. Then there’s Garry Tonon rounding out three top-tier guys with similar odds.
Push come to shove, I think Lepri is to win, but with the price, I’d probably bet on Tonon. Pick your favorite and make it happen.
MEN: 88KG DIVISION
This is a very intriguing division. The ageless Xande Ribeiro is the favorite, along with Keenan Cornelius, with Pablo Popovitch, Dillon Danis and Rustam Chsiev close behind. But none of these guys are the bets to make, I don’t think. Leandro Lo at +800, Murilo Santana at +900 and Gordon Ryan at +1500 are worth a look. It also might be worth taking a flyer on John Salter at +3000.
Honestly, Gordon Ryan at +1500 is the move here. Santana has struggled with injuries over the last few years, and Lo seems to be still adjusting to his heavier muscle mass. I’m a fan of betting underdogs with upside, it’s worth dropping some cash at +1500 on the theory that this is Ryan’s coming out party. It’s also bonkers that Danis gets 3x the price that Ryan does, but that’s gamblin’.
MEN: 99KG DIVISION
Jake Shields is in the 210 pound division? What a beast. Surprises here: Dean Lister is still among the favorites. Watch Yuri Simoes and Felipe Pena, but bothing leaps out at me here as a great value bet. My heart says Lovato, my head says “bet on a different division.”
MEN: 99KG+ DIVISION
Like betting on favorites? +350 is a pretty good price for a monster like Buchecha, or even Roberto Cyborg Abreu at +550. Like betting the longshots? Tom DeBlass is really good at jiujitsu, and +2500 (the same price as Jeff Monson) looks like the best play here.
WOMEN: +60KG DIVISION
Other than Cobrinha, the biggest betting favorite across all competitions is Gabi Garcia. These is a very good reason for that. The odds aren’t enough to make me run for the betting booth, but if you bet here, bet on Gabi. More to the point: do not bet against her. Watch for Tara White at +600, but give Tara another year.
Tomorrow: how you can play the prediction game with a free contest!